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First a note: This Preparedness Manual chapter in addition to identifying Risk and Solutions, presents a brief overview of the full text found in the full length MMC book. A link to the full ebook is found on the right side of the home page. Due to extremely dynamic conditions which morph daily, updates captioned as 2007 were discontinued in 2008. They were replaced with a subscriber based weekly "MMC's Risk Assessment Report", click here for details.

Then one day in 1974, things began to occur. OPEC it is told, created a shortfall of only 5% of worldwide production. It was the first time the US did not have enough gasoline to go around. The consequences were nearly catastrophic, and resulted in a severe worldwide recession. If you want a vision of things coming right around the corner regarding oil shortages, go and google "1974 oil crisis". It's not pretty, but it happened and it's going to happen again very soon. But this time, it won't go back to normal. Total availability of oil world wide is akin to a bell curve. The world's discovery and usage of oil started out slowly. During the first 100 plus years man became irrevocably dependent on OIL. Some time, perhaps now, we're going to start down the back side of the cycles curve. It's the back side which will make grown men cry. I remember 1974 as if it happened last week. I reminisce a bit in the full chapter. Do you remember things 30 years ago? We don't remember things that are not branded into our memory. Those days were branded into mine.

In this subchapter, “The Oil Age Cycle”, we examine the cycle closely in order for you to see clearly why the world is starting to run out of oil rapidly.

Since 1974, every few years the oil industry comes up with some reason to jack-up oil and gasoline costs. We have become accustomed to experiencing increases in cost, followed by reductions. But alas, prices never fall back to where they started. We've been seduced into accepting incremental increases in the rate of pilfering our wallets. Guess what, everywhere else in the world or nearly so, oil and gasoline costs are two, three even four times higher than we in the US have experienced.

Even now in the second half of 2004, we have witnessed a dazzling increase in the cost of crude, from about $30 a barrel, to over $55 a barrel. Then after the elections of 04, for some unknown reason crude started down again and is now in the low 40s. But alas, the cost at the pumps has stayed nearly the same and has not followed crude downward. It was a huge increment this time. OK, so it cam down six or seven cents. Compared to an average sixty cents increase the reduction is a pittance.

I worded that last paragraph to accentuate the conspiracy thoughts we all have. We have been conditioned to believe, every time costs go up they retreat. No one ever told us that some day the reasons for the increases would not go away. The ratcheting up of prices would not retreat. My friends, we are either at that time or are nearly so. What can we expect? How high will the prices go and how quickly will it happen when it starts????? Will you be to able to afford commuting to work each day and still have enough left to carry on??

Conspiracy may be alive and well, but it morphs into other forms right in front of us, and we seldom recognize what has happened. One thing we can begin to believe is: Cheap oil is beginning to morph into ever increasing prices.

Author's comment: Sorry to interrupt but there is an important message at the end of this section, which I encourage you to read.

"Petroleum geologists have known for 50 years that global oil production would "peak" and begin its inevitable decline within a decade before or after the year 2000. Moreover, no renewable energy systems have the potential to generate more than a fraction of the power now being generated by fossil fuels."

In recent years the rate of depletion of oil reserves is accelerating. Fewer and fewer new oil fields are being discovered. Oil producing nations have lied about their reserves for years. I see you are a skeptic. Many years ago OPEC decided to create a bonus system, which tied production to reserves. Within months, every OPEC producer restated their reserves to be as much as three times that which had been previously reported. The masquerade had begun. It continues today. Just recently the Saudi's claimed they would boost their output by 30% to help reduce the sky rocketing cost of crude. What they didn't tell us is, they were already at peak production. They didn't mention that oil refineries are hovering at 100%. They didn't mention, that even if they could boost their production, the world's tanker fleet is 100% in use.

As discussed in the full chapter, “Peak Oil” occurs when 50% of all available crude is used up and we have 50% left. There is no positive means of defining that exact point in time. The best barometer is production. When production falls a certain rate for a certain number of years, then it is concluded, that “Peak Oil” has come and gone. We're on the back side of the curve at that point.

What no one in mainstream media ever talks about is, the second half of the crude reserves. In this subsection, we examine closely the various undesirable characteristics of the remaining 50%. It's not pretty. Don't be fooled by the "Oh gosh we have plenty of reserves left". At what cost and at what rate of production?

The phrase “alternatives to oil” is and will become a daily topic in coffee houses, with commuters and with just about every person who is addicted to the benefits oil has made possible. The problem is, not enough is being done at the present. Even if a robust effort were being offered throughout the world, it's too late. The longer we dilly-dally, the harder will be the impact. The stronger the impact, the more doubtful is the case for civilization as we know it.

This subchapter takes a close look at fourteen existing vs. potential alternative sources for energy. Note that I said energy, not oil. Nothing can replace oil. Short of a miracle, which no one expects, all we can do is to develop a plethora of alternatives. Their combined output may have a chance of keeping mankind from descending into a primitive existence.

Summation Of Dangers Plus Preparedness Options

Dangers of a Global Energy Crisis to You And Your Family:

The Oil Industry is not dependable any longer

• Infrastructure is running at 100% capacity - it's tapped out!
• Tanker fleets are at 100% utility and there are no more tankers.
• Drilling rigs for the most part are old and dilapidated from constant drilling and are prone to down-time due to frequent maintenance. There is a major shortage of rigs. In the US, many of the Katrina oil rig outages have not come back into service.
• Refineries are old and dilapidated and are prone to maintenance down time. No refineries have been built in the US in 30 years and none are planned.
• Demand for oil products, primarily gasoline is exploding on a global level. Even in the US as fuel prices go up drivers keep on filling up.
• Weather related Interruptions are a real danger and everyone should understand how vulnerable our Gulf Coast oil infrastructure is during hurricane season.
• Terrorism is also a real threat. There a many ways terrorists can create an instant catastrophic problem. The Saudi oil infrastructure is an exceptionally vulnerable target, as everything is located on one little island.
• War with Iran has a high probability of changing the standard of living in the US over night. If the Iranians place mines in the Strait of Hormuz, all oil shipped by water in the region would stop - end - done! Instant $200 a barrel crude.
• Gas Prices are expected to continue to rise. Some analysts project gas to be higher than $5.00 a gallon in 2007. At this writing,[May 07] $4.50 has been already reached in the US.
• Credit Card Debt has risen 11% in the first quarter of 07, as consumers go deeper in debt, filling their tanks with higher priced gas each week.
• Discretionary Income which historically is used to purchase non essentials, is being squeezed as monthly gasoline costs and other oil related costs have continued to climb. Only so many bucks to go around, something must give. Less fun things for most middle class folks.
• Oil shortages are looming and are forecast by the majority of energy experts.
• The trend is downward as experts forecast a deepening crisis over time.
• Lies, Lies and more lies by public officials, media and some high profile figures in the oil industry.
• Oil Alternatives are gaining support, but nothing known to man can replace oil.
More lies!
• Ethenol is exploding as a biofuel as farmers [corn & soy beans] jump on the band wagon. So expect major shortages in food crops and animal feed as a result, not to mention the inflating of food costs as fuel competes with food.
• Cheap Oil is pretty much history as the majority of cheap oil wells decline in yield.
• Oil is plentiful is heard over talk radio. They're correct. What they are not telling you is Expensive Oil Is Plentiful - Cheap oil is not. cheap oil [sweet, easy to extract, easy to refine] oil is not plentiful. No matter how you cut the cards, the oil picture is still a looming crisis.
• Oil Rush on a global level is occurring, as China and others scour the globe making deals to lock up future production. At the expense of the US I might add, as most of the oil rich nations aren't really fond our Uncle Sam, preferring deals with China over the US. The pigeon comes home to roost - as they say.
• Suburbia Under Attack as cost to travel to and from employment escalates, the affordability of a suburban life style decreases and so does property value.

Options in Preparing for Global Energy Crisis

• Shorten your commute if possible.
• Desensitization, like the slow boil of a frog is under way - be aware of the process and be proactive.
• Car Pool, look into starting or joining one.
• Retrain and add skills just in case you want to change jobs, more skills will broaden your employment chances.
• Home Based Biz has become a viable option in a digital world.
• Part Home - Part Office has become a viable option in a digital world. See if your company will help you out by working at home a portion of the week.
• Relocate to an area with better employment opportunities.
• Fuel Efficient Vehicles, get into one and get out of your gas hog.
• Stock Up On Gas, because when there is a shortage, you don't want to lose your wheels. don't let it get stale, rotate your stock time and or put a conditioner in it, in case you forget.
• Switching to Regular Gas will save you big bucks. Almost all vehicles will operate fine on regular. Try it out, if you don't hear a ping on acceleration, it's probably OK. Of course, ask your service center as well.
• Service Your Fuel System with fresh plugs, filters etc. will only help.
• Drive Slower, ya right - that's like telling you not to think about sex. However, slower is better by about 5% - 10%, in most cases.
• Plan Your Trips by combining multiple chores each time you get in the car to do local stuff.
• Mass Transit may be available, the more people use it the more stops and lines they will add.
• Prepare For Shortages in essentials such as food, gas, medicines etc. and emergency stuff because shortages are expected to increase significantly in the near term.
• Safe On Utilities by lowering your use of electricity - it's easy. You will have extra bucks for the gas pump.

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