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Is Your Good-Life At Risk?
By: Lon Langille It is very difficult to find a westerner who has not been immersed in some level of the Good-Life in recent history. Even those on the dole have to some extent had their share as well. Excesses in any form trend to an uncomfortable conclusion. The forces which have driven our global economies to the brink are simply: The commonalityall people share is to feel good and to enjoy life. The engine pushing the need for feeling good to ever increasing and unsustainable heights was fueled by debt, massive debt in all sectors of the economy. Lurking just behind the curtain are those who clearly understand how to exploit the weaknesses of mankind. Small, yet powerful these few, driven by power and greed greased the wheels of industry, banking and finance on a global level to facilitate the process of debt expansion to catastrophic levels. They did so with full knowledge and recognition that at some indeterminate point in time, things will begin to unravel. The core purpose of this writing is to shed light on events which led to the risk level we find ourselves in presently. Although many events are building on a global level, any one of which could erupt into a life-changing event for many millions, the focus here will be on economic issues and specifically USofA economic issues. In the west we have experienced extraordinary economic expansion since the end of the last world war, over 60 years ago. But what are the mechanics of a long-term economic expansion or economic boom? By understanding the creation of Good-Life we can better understand just how fragile it really is. Everyone knows booms come and booms go but occasionally events of synchronicity make the "going" or "ending" more challenging to endure than otherwise. The mechanics of building our most recent boom and how the current group of synchronistic events might exacerbate the unraveling as it ends, can be very enlightening and perhaps frightening as well. In recent years a plethora of events and changes have emerged here in the US and like a virus spread infecting most global economies. At a glace one pays no attention. Studied closer one can step back and reflect on their emerging thoughts and what they feel or see or imagine conjures up fear and uncertainty. There are powerful forces seemingly on a convergence course to collide in our lifetime and yes in the near future. These forces have been - well, ignored, denied, sloughed off, dismissed, or whatever. The why is no longer important in assessing the approaching convergence of events. It's too late to point fingers and shout obscenities in frustration and apprehension. It's time for recognition, assessment and action. The enormously successful formula for our current economic expansion reached it's pinnacle of success about August of 2005 as one of the primary forces driving the economic expansion namely the housing boom peaked and began to decline on the backside of the cycle curve. The tentacles of the housing industry reached deeply and broadly into nearly every sector of the US economy and when the decline started it slowly affected all tentacles and consequently the economy at large. The current unwinding of our epoch period is what we are experiencing in every aspect of our lives. However, this event is much different than busts in our past. I would like to review the differences of this bust from past busts, however the shocking truth would be totally denied by the majority of readers. I'll leave the less palatable aspects for a future revision perhaps. Those who care to understand the unspoken will find Google to be a friend. An intriguing element of this unwinding is that multiple synchronistic financial and economic storms are rapidly developing as a direct yet unexpected result of the current boom-bust scenario. These challenges are being thrust onto the scene by events and forces which were clearly visible to those who were paying attention. When I see a large thunderhead looming on the horizon and as it becomes larger and larger, I would generally conclude it is coming my way. However, intoxication with the Good-Life tends to blind us to approaching economic storms. The clouds are utterly ignored or denied by the powers-that-be as well as the greater portion of citizenry until the thunder is so loud that it is too late to seek safe haven. Currently, the cracks of thunder are ear shattering and will grow even louder in the near future. As we review the elements of expansion keep in mind that economic expansion [boom] is predicated on spending money. Remember also, we need lots of money to spend and consequently lots of debt to be burdened with. See how simple the formula is - "borrow spend", "borrow spend", let's be happy, life is good! So all we need is a mechanism by which lot's of money is readily available to borrow and spend. The formula will help us understand this factor. The Boom Formula = create massive liquidity, create easy credit, create increasingly low interest rates, create innovative lending models, create incentives to deplete savings, create home equity extraction programs, create expansion of credit card usage, create rapid turn-over of motor vehicles. What you are not aware of as yet is that simple formula will make most of our middle class indentured servants to the Lords of Banking for the rest of their lives. The middle class is being destroyed. Huuum - I wonder why? Create massive liquidity [money to borrow] - creates over expansion of personal debt. Massive numbers of loans require massive amounts of available funds called liquidity. Local banks borrow funds to lend to others from large commercial banks who borrow from the Fed daily. When commercial banks borrow from the Fed, money is created out of thin air. For the most part, fiat money does not exist without debt. As debt is paid off, fiat money evaporates like an elusion. Bottom line, banks needed lots and lots of dollars to lend to you and me called level of liquidity, and the system made sure they had plenty. Create easy credit to even the uncredit worthy - creates over expansion of personal debt. Easy credit in simple terms means anyone walking through the door can walk out with a loan approved. Now let me ask you my reader. Would you loan money to someone you felt had little or no chance of paying off the loan over time? Second question will require you to think out of the box. Why do you suppose the banking industry with a nod from the Fed and almost 100% of the politicians in this country, knowingly loaned many hundreds of billions and all the while not expecting it to be repaid? If you answer that question right, I'll give you a lollypop and you will be one of the most insightful people in the room. BTW, you can't convince me they didn't know - they'de need to be retarded not to know. It's not a dark secrete, through the ages it's how the process works. Create increasingly low interest rates - creates over expansion of personal debt. Now why would interest rates continue to be reduced even though economic conditions were very robust? It's very simple and the answer is seduction. As the rate of creating new loans at a given interest rate slowed, interest rates are further reduced in order to increase the rate of loan applications. The banks wanted to take it all. They wanted to encumber as many willing participants to a life of debt and indentured servitude as possible. Now I could write a book on this single topic, so we shall not continue much further here. One caveat to add: Booms never continue on, they always collapse. Now why would you suppose the banks and others would want to encumber so many people to be so leveraged with debt and ill equipped to pay off the debt in the event of a boom collapse? A collapse always negatively affects income and ability to repay debt. You get another lollypop if you answer correctly. Create innovative lending models - creates over expansion of personal debt. What would you do if you wanted no obstacles in the path of stamping loan applications with APPROVED? No one gave a shxt about the negative implications of approving loans to borrowers who had no real ability to repay. [can you say immoral?] It's a little like net fishing in the ocean, every sea creature in the way of the net gets caught and dies. Here is a good question: Why would anyone create an ARM mortgage plan and allow a borrower to commit to pay when in reality the notion of increased rates three years hence would render the borrower unable to meet obligations. Can you say "who cares"? Or better yet, can you say "by design?" Creative mortgages were designed for one and only one purpose - encumber as many naive soles as possible without regard for their financial welfare or their families or to all the businesses caught up in the turmoil of a collapsing housing market. Zero consideration was placed on the poor soles unable to meet obligations some years hence. No don't tell me everyone thought prices and income would continue to inflate and borrowers would be able to handle higher monthly payments. Anyone alive for 20 years sees the cycles of the market and surely asks themselves is this a prudent thing to do? When they have no vested interest such as down payment at stake, why should they not take the risk? They were seduced, for without risk, the buyers had nothing to lose. With nothing to lose, they just walk away or refuse to pay until they are forced to leave. Create a reduction in savings - creates over expansion of personal debt. Historically personal savings in the US has been declining for two decades. Presently the rate is technically in the negative area if one relates debt to assets. However, just looking at savings the US is just above zero and is at an historical low. This indicator in and of itself is a red flag for any economy. What has happened in recent years is a rapid drawdown of personal savings. Hey, when you're addicted to spending then savings are at risk. Early on savings went to feed the Good-Life monster with routine small feel good purchases as well as using the savings as down payments of larger purchases. In the recent past and now, what little savings are left are going towards gas and food - ugly times are near. Create Home Equity Extraction - creates over expansion of personal debt. AAAAAH, this is my favorite! Don't make enough money? Don't have any more savings? Don't have anything to sell or transform into money? Still wanna enjoy the Good-Life beyond your means? Well just take money from the only thing you have left to protect you and your family from hard times. Sure risk losing your home. Nah, never happen you say. Wrong, just look around. You deserve what you get. Anyone who puts their family in potential harms way has no sympathy from me - no sir! Create Expansion of Credit Card Usage - creates over expansion of personal debt. When you use your credit card you are actually entering into a short-term loan with your credit card issuer. They very much like to be repaid but not necessarily promptly. If you create credit card debt and miss a payment, your interest rate is propelled upward. Credit card issuers love poor payers and hate folks like me who pay in-full monthly. They issue high rates to poor performers to fill the issuer's coffers, while they knowingly and by plan pilfer the wallets of poor performers. Their whole model is premised on the statistic that a certain percentage of card holders will always be poor performers and that's where the profit is. The problem is the rate of poor performers is increasing at an alarming rate. Currently the rate of late payment users is accelerating as is the rate of defaults [failure to meet payment obligations]. It appears massive credit card defaults could be months away and if you don't think the banks aren't terrified you're wrong. The little game seems to be backfiring and banks are at great risk. Be careful and be vigilant for big changes in credit card terms awl your access to credit, it's just peaking over the horizon. Hundreds of billions of dollars of credit card debt instruments are bundled into Collateralized Debt Obligations or CDOs. These CDOs are sold throughout the world as AAA instruments and are valued with a Mark to Model formula. That means when the credit card holders begin to default big-time and holders of the CDO's need/want to liquidate [sell], they will find the market will not offer what the Mark To Model claimed they would be worth. Can you say "financial derivative disaster"? Watch for it on the evening news. They will be bound to make a quick off handed remark at some point in near term. BTW, you ought to research the real back room villain called derivatives but have lot's of pampers near. Create rapid turn-over of vehicles - creates over expansion of personal debt. So you like that new SUV every few years? Well the auto industry surely hopes you do and will do just about anything to make it happen. The tricks the dealers play on innocent buyers is legend. Now with fuel reaching upward at historic rates, the ability of middle class America to afford to feed multiple gas hogs in the driveway is reaching critical mass. Oh, did I mention that your vehicles have deflated in value to be below what you owe? Huuum. Well there goes the auto industry. Why, because everyone ignored the term Peak Oil and continued to build and seduce buyers into the front seat of what is now an albatross. This is not an article on Peak Oil, so we won't labor the topic, though we do touch on it again later in this report. Suffice it to say, no matter what the reason is behind the escalation of cost for crude oil, it ain't gonna go down again. Can you say "we're screwed"? Non-Formula Financial and Economic Risks We've examined albeit briefly the downside of over leveraging one's credit [getting too deeply into debt], in this section we will briefly examine a number of issues which could/will exacerbate the negative side of be a leveraged individual. Any of the issues discussed below have the power within themselves to destroy the US economic system as we know it. Combined with the issues stated above, well I'll let your imagination take over from here.
The banking and money system in the US: Presently in order to deal with the massive financial losses experienced by just about all financial institutions, the Fed is pumping liquidity [loaning money] into the system with billions lent to institutions daily. The downside is the collateral against the loans being accepted by the Fed is considered junk in the real world - no kidding - it's junk. In the real world accepting worthless collateral is a red-flag indicator of horrific panic by Fed. They are knowingly breaking the absolute rules and are accepting worthless paper assets as collateral, in order to keep the system from unraveling over night as in the Bears Sterns debacle. This stuff would make a great novel. A second downside of massive liquidity [bank bailout] is a 100% chance of massive inflation within the near future. Inflation is always caused by too many dollars chasing too few goods. Take this as a warning, massive inflation of historic proportions is ahead of us. Oh, forgot to ask. Do you believe the inflation factor as reported by the gov? At this point in time at the end of the second quarter of 08, inflation is running about 17%. That's right 17% but of course that figure was calculated with the same formula that was for used generations. Or it was until the gov started to hide the real inflation by changing the formula of how it is derived. Nice! Do you see food going up - how about energy products? They among others aren't being included anymore. Huuuum, why? Without boring you with further financial details of which perhaps you have little interest in, let me cut to the chase. As I write this article, and for some time now, the Fed along with certain real Federal government agencies as-well-as backroom specialty groups have been working 24/7 to keep the financial world from collapsing. If they should fail as indications suggest they will, then the downside effects on you and me will be tremendous. The third and fourth quarter of 2008 may become a watershed period for the US economy. Who the heck is the FED anyway? Did you know the Fed which is short for the Federal Reserve System is not an agency within the US government as the title leads one to believe. The Fed functions as an independent agent of the US government. It's breadth of mandate issued and overseen by congress is very limited. One of it's mandates is to operate a network of 12 central banks within the US, which operate as central banks for commercial banks within the US. Oversight of the 12 fed banks is one of the mandates of the Fed Board of Governors. The primary bank being Federal Reserve Bank of New York. The Fed is primarily a quasi private organization authorized to function as an outside agent of the US Federal government much like an outside contractor. The actual ownership of the FED has never been disclosed to the best of my knowledge Many publications lay claim that control of the FED lies within a group of elite bankers and banks scattered about the planet. The FED's website claims something else. Until I see clear and undisputed evidence of ownership, I will continue to take the stand that ownership has never been divulged. To me a total lack of transparency tells me the worst case scenario is no doubt the truth. Get this, even though Congress has oversight of the Fed, there has never been a audit of any sort. Even with oversight, they operate with impunity with complete autonomy. I mentioned earlier how the Fed is bailing out insolvent banking institutions. Well some of those same institutions are believed to be among the owners of the Fed. They're referred to as friends. I would heartily suggest you get on Google and research the Fed and learn about the system which is yearning to own the world.
Dollar - Global Reserve Currency: Since the US dollar is the reserve currency, large amounts of money exchanged are also dollar related. For the most part every barrel of oil extracted from the ground is sold in dollars referred to as PetroDollars. Another large scale usage of dollars is in foreign trade. When the US Makes a payment to another nation for goods we import, we pay the exporting nation in dollars which automatically become EuroDollars. The term EuroDollar has nothing to do with Europe. I'll explain in simple terms the dollar conveyor system - a global system. The US buys imports and pays with dollars which the exporting nation receives as EuroDollars. The same country needs to buy crude oil and when they do they buy with EuroDollars which now become PetroDollars. The OPRC Nations led by the Kingdom Of Saud collaborate and now buy US debt instruments in the form of US bonds etc. and guess what they use to buy the debt. You guessed it they use PetroDollars which once again are now plain old Dollars. The Dollar has come in full circle, ending up buying our own debt by a foreign nation. Do you think this system is invaluable to the survival of the US economy? You bet it is! When foreign nations no longer need to pay for oil in Petrodollars, they will hence no longer accept payment for their exports to the US in dollars. They will demand some alternative countries currency and btw, this process has already begun by visionary countries. Translated, the dollar will / is becoming shunned on a global level. Historically foreign nations have purchased and held US bonds primarily due to the prestige of the US Dollar, the US financial community and the US economy. The astute reader by now sees where I am headed with this topic. Not if but when the US dollar is no longer considered the Reserve Currency of the globe, then all bets are off. Oil will no longer be purchased in PetroDollars, nations will no longer use or want EuroDollars to buy US debt instruments, nor will OPEC buy our instruments with PetroDollars, the US is screwed! Do I need to say more? There is a very substantial chance that the dollar is already losing grasp of the Reserve Currency thrown. Chances are high that major changes will occur in the latter portion of 2008 or in 2009 which will end the dollar's reign. That date will be the beginning of even greater economical turmoil in the US. To add fuel to the concern, President Bush may have already in recent past given an OK for the OPEC countries to allow the dollar to float against other currencies regarding crude oil purchases. This change is due primarily as a result of OPEC nations complaining vehemently against being tied to a currency which was inflating wildly. What da ya mean, we dont got no inflation - do we? The end draws near for the dollar as a Global Reserve Currency.
Threat of War with Iran:
Climate Change:
Energy Crisis: Most professionals who are HONEST agree that Peak Oil occurred in mid year of 2005 and my own research would lend agreement. So we are three full years into the decline of cheap oil and the rate of decline accelerates over time. Without dedicating more space in this report let me say "time is of the essence". We are accelerating into an abyss, where our large global population is on the verge of a major calamity of biblical proportions. Every aspect of contemporary life style in developed nations is directly dependent on affordable oil. If oil suddenly was not available life as we know it would regress 100 years over night. However, oil will not disappear, we will slowly run out as scarcity escalates and costs become unaffordable for everyday usage. Tens of thousands of everyday items manufactured with oil will reach unaffordable prices, fuel will become equally unaffordable and life as we know it will be altered without recourse. Even with an all-out global effort to find a replacement for oil, it would take trillions of dollars and many, many years to rebuild and infrastructure to accommodate the new fuels, such as hydrogen. There are no viable options no matter what you hear, especially on public media news broadcasts. Just as in climate change there are several schools of thought. To me it does not matter what school you find comfort in, from my view the abyss is coming into view and little or nothing is being done to mitigate the problem of oil dependency and depletion. The answer to the question "Why?" is quite simple. The problem is too huge, it involves every aspect of our daily lives and no innovative solution is in the pipeline which addresses the full scope of human needs of which oil is the only known product which does. Sure there are many, many products and projects in the pipeline but non will ever share the stage with the king of products. All else is at this moment in time a poor alternative to oil in is specific need objective. Hydrogen for example is forecast to be a suitable replacement as a fuel. At this point in time the likelihood for Hydrogen coming to our rescue in time to save civilization is quite remote. Even if it did, there are thousands of manufactured products dependent on oil, which will not be saved by Hydrogen. The good news is, man is a very resourceful creature and when his back is against the wall, his best survival skills emerge. Chances are that during the dark days and years ahead man will slowly emerge the victor. There is one caveat. There is sufficient evidence emerging via a few brave soles referred to as whistle blowers who offer hope. From many quarters the story is taking shape. The story is elementary. The elite global powers-that-be have for generations and continue even today to extract innovative products from the openness of the real world. They scour every nook and cranny of our world seeking innovations which they deem a threat to their current paradigm which they seek to protect. In what ever fashion deemed necessary they extract the information, innovation or invention from it's current owners and hence it is never heard about again. This is not a fairy tale, it is reality. There is a powerful group living on this planet which is persistent in their generations long attempt of controlling every aspect of mans existence. The Internet though, is proving to be their potential Achilles Heal. There is a plethora of information emerging from the darkness of fear as the brave soles mentioned earlier stand up and face the risk of telling their story. Their courage is encouraging others to carry their banner and spread the word and at great risk. So, there is a chance that humankind may awaken in time to rise to the challenge and literally force the scoundrels to open the doors to the hidden archives. I pray that God and His Universe will it so.
Special Comments on the Cost of Fuel: There are several factors all playing a role in the escalating cost of fuel. I will very briefly give you the big picture: Supply and Demand in any market is typically the primary driving force governing value and price. Regarding oil and fuel it once again is the governing factor. Simply put, as related recently by T. Bone Pickens there is a current demand of about 87 million barrels of crude a day and there is only a supply of 85 million barrels. That represents a shortfall of about 2 million barrels a day. This sort of supply and demand is referred to as being inelastic. There is no give. We are on the back side of the supply curve and shortfalls and shortages will only accelerate. Supply and demand as usual is the primary governing force on price. The Dollar is perhaps the second greatest cause to the rapid rise in fuel. Every currency in the world is scaled to every other currency. The dollar is scaled minute by minute to the Euro and to a basket of currencies from around the world referred to as the Dollar Index or DI. As the dollar fluctuates up and down against the DI, the dollars purchasing value goes up or down. We are talking about one aspect of inflation. How the dollar inflates or deflates against other currencies on a global level. In the last several years the value of the dollar as related to the DI has be falling precipitously and in 2008 the decent has accelerated. Translated that means the dollar is inflating which decreases it purchasing power [refer to Inflation just below]. As the value of the dollar goes down [inflates] more dollars are needed to make a purchase. Hence as the dollar index [DI] more dollars are needed to buy oil, giving the illusion that the price of oil is going up, when in actuality the purchasing power of the dollar is going down. As the dollar value goes down against the DI the number of dollars needed to purchase on a global level goes up. Inflation was referred to several times in the dollar section just above. Indexing the dollar against other currencies is one measure of the dollar. Inflation though is more direct and recognizable to readers as a useful measure and warrants a brief discussion. To wake you up with a shock, let me tell you that in 1913 the Federal Reserve System was established. Suppose we say the dollar bought a dollars worth of goods on the day the Fed was born. Today, the dollar buys only 5% or less of the goods it would buy in 1913. OMG you say, how could that be? Earlier we discussed the Fractionalized Banking System [FBS] commonly used worldwide. An FBS banking system always needs more and more debt to exist. As you may recall, money does not exist in a FBS system until a debt is created. Therefore as more and more debt has been created since 1913, more and more dollars have been created into existence. We learned earlier that the purchasing value of the dollar goes down as it is inflated, that is as more dollars chase the same amount of goods. So, in 1913 the Fed our best friend of course started a journey of dollar destruction and today the Fed or should I say the owners of the Fed are 95% done in program of destroying the dollar. In a very short period of time they will have completed their task, the dollar will be worthless. Note, historically the end game in destroying a currency is always hyperinflation. - OMG, that's a whole new topic for another article. As indicated in the dollar section inflation [too may dollars] in the raw is the actual villain in terms of the rising cost of fuel. Speculation in the global commodities market has been recently accused as being the primary villain escalating the cost of fuel. The claim is merely a deliberate over statement at best, although it does reflect a small burden of responsibility on speculators, albeit far short of being a villain.
Terrorism: Once the US is on its knees, all bets are off. There are strong indications that while we are down, the terrorists from about the globe will do their best to make life unpleasant. There are equally strong indicators that suggest certain sovereign nations would like to have a go at us as well. I guess we'll just have to be patient. Are you gonna be ready?
Concluding Comments:
I've tried to reduce the content of a large non fiction publication and distill it down to 7 or 8 pages of right in for face material. I apologize for the directness, as there is little time to play with words anymore. My task in writing this report was to create a few ahah's in the readership. Ahah's tend to inspire awareness and hopefully a thirst for more details to connect the dots. Time is very short and readers ought to consider creating a serious plan on how to protect themselves and their loved ones from any number of in-harms-way events. Preparedness of your financial household is essential in order to protect your loved ones by providing at least a safe haven we call home. Information presented within the pages of this web site as well as hyperlinks to other remote pages, is presented for informational and educational purposes only. Please refer to our Disclaimer Page before proceeding and or leaving this website.
Last edited on ... March 15, 2007
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